Demand Side Management, a BlastPoint working artifact
Data-center growth put every U.S. utility's load forecast back into the red. New generation takes 5-10 years and costs about $1,300 a kilowatt. A targeted Demand Side Management program takes 12 months at a fraction of that.
SECC Snapshot Survey, March 2026 · Lazard LCOE+ June 2025 v18.0 · NERC 2025 LTRA · BlastPoint client outcomes
Addressable peak shift
142MW (one-time)
About 5% of your summer peak, at 24% enrollment and a blended 1.0 kW per home. Tune participation and program mix in the Quick Estimate below ("Peak capacity secured").
Avoided peaker cost
$199M (one-time)
The gas peaker you don't build, at ~$1,300/kW, before program cost. The Quick Estimate below nets out 10 years of opex ("Avoided generation capex").
Why this matters now
U.S. peak demand was nearly flat from 2005 to 2022. Hyperscaler buildouts, manufacturing reshoring, and electrification ended that. Every major investor-owned utility has revised its 10-year forecast upward in the last 18 months.
New generation is a 5-to-10 year project. Interconnection queues run longer. In the near term, the megawatts your planners can actually count on live behind customer meters.
U.S. peak demand vs. new generation in queue
Both lines start at 100 in 2024. The widening gap is demand the queue can't meet.
Composite of NERC LTRA 2025, EIA Form 860 interconnection queues, and BlastPoint analysis. Indicative.
The math
Installed cost per kilowatt and levelized cost per megawatt-hour for the resources a planner is choosing between today. DSM is shown as a pooled avoided cost: it isn't generation, it's generation deferred.
Lazard LCOE+ June 2025 v18.0 capital-cost midpoints. Solar + storage combines utility PV with a 4-hr battery; nuclear reflects AP1000 estimates. DSM is a BlastPoint-clients-pooled avoided cost.
The customers
Harris Poll for the Smart Energy Consumer Collaborative, March 2026, U.S. adults. The aggregate numbers look strong; the per-device willingness varies sharply, which is exactly where segmentation pays.
Net interest in demand response
SECC Snapshot Survey · March 2026 · all U.S. adults
Customers reduce or shift use themselves on event notification. 34% detractors.
Utility automatically adjusts a device during events. 47% detractors.
Source: SECC / Harris Poll, "Consumer Understanding of Demand Response," May 2026.
The Control Keeper effect
The phrase comes from a major U.S. utility. It's the customer who endorses demand response in surveys but balks when asked to hand over device control. Behavioral programs (Peak Time Rebates, time-of-use) capture this group without the device handoff. That utility has documented 2,500 customers a year migrating from PTR into the thermostat program once the trust is built.
The implication for outreach: a one-message campaign loses both audiences. Direct load control offers go to households that will opt in; behavioral offers go to the Control Keepers; a migration path connects them.
"2,500 customers per year migrate from Peak Time Rebates to Smart Thermostat. The behavioral program builds the trust that softens the Control Keeper effect."
SECC Webinar · May 2026A quick estimate
Drag the inputs to your service territory's profile for a directional estimate. Per-household kW assumptions (1.2 kW direct load control, 0.8 kW behavioral) are planning benchmarks pending utility-specific validation. Avoided costs from Lazard LCOE+ June 2025 v18.0 ranges.
Projected outcome
Avoided generation capex
$238,000,000$238M (one-time, net of 10-yr opex)
One-time avoided capex, net of program operating cost over a 10-year program horizon. Defers about 4% of your summer peak.
Peak capacity secured
170MW
Enrolled households
204K
Direct load control capacity share
102MW
Behavioral capacity share
68MW
Assumes ~0.8 kW shiftable per behavioral household and ~1.2 kW per direct-load-control household at typical event dispatch, directional planning benchmarks. The addressable shift is capped at an aggressive 15% of summer peak, a best-case ceiling rather than a typical level. The avoided new-build cost slider is the price the capacity you defer would otherwise cost to build; a new gas peaker runs about $1,300/kW (Lazard LCOE+ v18.0). Avoided cost compounds when peaker plants are deferred rather than built. Full methodology →
This is the back-of-the-envelope version. For a number built from your utility's actual data, run the benchmark below ↓
This is a working draft. If something is unclear, wrong, or missing, tell us what would make it more useful.
