Demand Side Management — a BlastPoint working artifact
Data-center growth has put every U.S. utility's load forecast back into the red. New generation takes 5 to 10 years. A targeted Demand Side Management program takes 12 months. The math, the customer research, and the segmentation are below — paste a prospect list at the bottom and we'll draft outreach for each one.
SECC Snapshot Survey, March 2026 · n=2,091 · Lazard LCOE 2024 · BlastPoint client outcomes
Addressable peak shift
142MW
At a 24% residential enrollment ceiling — the PGE benchmark.
Avoided CT plant cost
$199M
~$1,400/kW for a new combustion turbine peaker.
Why this conversation, why now
U.S. peak demand was nearly flat from 2005 to 2022. Hyperscaler buildouts, manufacturing reshoring, and electrification ended that. Every major Tier 1 utility has revised its 10-year forecast upward in the last 18 months.
New generation is a 5-to-10 year project. Interconnection queues run longer. In the near term, the megawatts your planners can actually count on live behind customer meters.
U.S. peak demand vs. new generation in queue
Indexed to 2024 = 100 · ten-year horizon
Composite of NERC LTRA 2025, EIA Form 860 interconnection queues, and BlastPoint analysis. Indicative.
The math
Installed cost per kilowatt and levelized cost per megawatt-hour for the resources a planner is choosing between today. DSM is shown as a pooled avoided cost — it isn't generation, it's generation deferred.
Lazard LCOE+ 2024 ranges, midpoint shown. DSM figure is BlastPoint-clients-pooled avoided-cost.
The customers
Harris Poll for the Smart Energy Consumer Collaborative, March 2026, n=2,091 U.S. adults. The aggregate numbers look strong; the per-device willingness varies sharply, which is exactly where segmentation pays.
Net interest in demand response
SECC Snapshot Survey · March 2026 · all U.S. adults
Customers reduce or shift use themselves on event notification. 34% detractors.
Utility automatically adjusts a device during events. 47% detractors.
Source: SECC / Harris Poll, "Consumer Understanding of Demand Response," May 2026.
The Control Keeper effect
The phrase comes from Portland General Electric. It's the customer who endorses demand response in surveys but balks when asked to hand over device control. Behavioral programs (Peak Time Rebates, time-of-use) capture this group without the device handoff. PGE has documented 2,500 customers a year migrating from PTR into the thermostat program once the trust is built.
The implication for outreach: a one-message campaign loses both audiences. Direct load control offers go to households that will opt in; behavioral offers go to the Control Keepers; a migration path connects them.
"Two-thousand-five-hundred customers per year migrate from Peak Time Rebates to Smart Thermostat. The behavioral program builds the trust that softens the Control Keeper effect."
SECC Webinar · Portland General Electric · May 2026ROI calculator
Drag the inputs to your service territory's profile. Per-household kW assumptions are PGE-derived (1.2 kW DLC, 0.8 kW behavioral). Avoided costs from Lazard 2024 LCOE+ ranges. Use the numbers as a discussion frame, not a forecast.
Projected outcome
Avoided generation capex
$238M
Net of program operating cost over a 10-year horizon. Indicative; replace assumptions in a working session.
Peak capacity secured
170MW
Enrolled households
204K
DLC capacity share
102MW
Behavioral capacity share
68MW
Assumes ~0.8 kW shiftable per behavioral household and ~1.2 kW per DLC household at typical event dispatch — PGE-derived benchmarks. Avoided cost compounds when peaker plants are deferred rather than built.
DSM Benchmarking Tool
Enter any U.S. utility — or a peer set you want to compare against — and see how each ranks across load growth pressure, DSM program maturity, data-center exposure, and customer-side readiness. Click any utility for the rationale and a tailored discussion frame.
One utility per line. Add your own plus peers you want to compare against.
Each utility is scored on
✓ Unlocked for —
Scores are model-generated estimates from public information. Higher = stronger readiness signal across load growth, customer-side capacity, and program maturity. Treat as a research starting point, not a procurement-grade assessment.
DSM Benchmarking Tool
Enter your work email to run the benchmark. We'll email you a copy of the results plus the underlying methodology for your records.
Report being prepared for your inbox. The scoring is starting now.
"Customer engagement on energy efficiency among low and moderate income customers tripled after we used BlastPoint to target the program. The microsegments told us which households had the capacity, the propensity, and the right message — at the same time."National Grid Energy Efficiency Program · 3× engagement lift · Customer Intelligence case study
